Home Affordability in San Francisco, CA
AI-sector wealth is pushing prices up 25% in a year even as sales volume falls — and California's Prop 13 means the property tax bill grows far slower than the price did.
Quick answer
On a $2,050,000 home in San Francisco with 20% down, expect all-in monthly housing costs (mortgage, property tax, insurance, maintenance) of roughly $14,700/month — and about $482,600 in total cash to close and move in.
Example scenario at a 6.65% 30-year fixed rate. Illustrative only — run your own numbers below.
The San Francisco market right now
San Francisco's median sale price hit $2.05 million in August 2026 — up 25.2% year over year, even as it slipped 4.7% from the month before. Price per square foot is up 19.6% year over year to $1,181. The driver is concentrated, not broad-based: wealth from the AI sector has piled into San Francisco specifically, at the same time active listings are down 41% year over year. Fewer homes are selling, but the ones that do are going for much more — a scarcity story more than a demand-wave story.
What it actually costs to buy in San Francisco
Most affordability calculators stop at the mortgage payment. That leaves out the two lines that decide whether a purchase is comfortable or tight: property tax and, below 20% down, PMI. Here is the full picture on a $2,050,000 home with 20% down at 6.65%:
| Cost | Monthly |
|---|---|
| Mortgage principal & interest | $10,528 |
| Property tax (1.2%) | $2,050 |
| Homeowners insurance | $375 |
| Maintenance reserve | $1,708 |
| Total | $14,662 |
California's Prop 13 is the thing that makes this property tax line different from every other market on this site. Your assessed value is fixed at your purchase price, and by law it can grow by at most 2% a year — regardless of what the market does. Buy today at $2.05M and your assessed value ten years from now is capped near $2.5M even if the home's actual market value has doubled. That is a real, structural advantage over states that reassess to current market value, and it is worth more the longer you hold.
Transfer tax and the long-run trade
San Francisco layers its own steeply tiered transfer tax on top of California's. At the $1M–$5M tier — where the example home falls — the city rate is $3.75 per $500, or 0.75%: about $15,375 on a $2.05M sale. That climbs sharply at higher tiers, reaching 6% on sales of $25M or more (a 2020 ballot measure specifically targeted the top end). It is a one-time cost, but at these price levels it is not a small one — budget for it explicitly rather than treating closing costs as an afterthought.
Two down payment scenarios
Putting down less than 20% brings private mortgage insurance into the picture — priced by how much you put down, not a flat rate. On the same $2,050,000 home:
| 20% down | 10% down | |
|---|---|---|
| Down payment | $410,000 | $205,000 |
| Loan amount | $1,640,000 | $1,845,000 |
| Monthly P&I | $10,528 | $11,844 |
| Monthly PMI | $0 | $846 |
| Total monthly housing | $14,662 | $16,823 |
The $205,000 you keep by putting down 10% instead of 20% carries a real recurring cost — about $846/month in PMI on top of a larger loan balance, until the balance falls to 80% of the original purchase price. Whether that trade is worth it depends on what else that cash could do for you: emergency reserves, invested elsewhere, or simply not being spent. That is the kind of trade-off a static calculator cannot weigh but a full 30-year projection can.
Cash needed to close
Beyond the down payment, budget for closing costs, prepaids, and move-in costs:
| Closing costs | $25,655 |
| Prepaids (interest, insurance, tax escrow) | $15,882 |
| Move-in costs | $31,094 |
| Down payment | $410,000 |
| Total cash to close | $482,631 |
What income do you need?
There is no single answer, but there is a useful threshold. Viso starts flagging a purchase as tight once housing — mortgage, property tax, insurance, and PMI, excluding maintenance — passes about 42% of take-home pay. On the 20%-down scenario above, housing runs $12,953/month, which implies take-home of roughly $30,800/month to stay under that line.
We deliberately do not translate that into a gross salary. The gap between gross and take-home swings widely with filing status, retirement contributions, equity compensation, and — a large factor that varies entirely by state — whether you owe state income tax at all. Put your actual income and location into the planner and it will do the conversion properly.
Is 3% appreciation realistic for San Francisco?
We use 3.0%/year for San Francisco as a starting assumption — well below the current 25.2% year-over-year run, deliberately. San Francisco has one of the most boom-and-bust price histories of any major U.S. market: the dot-com bust, 2008, the 2020–2022 remote-work exodus, and now an AI-driven rebound, all inside 25 years. A spike this sharp is real, but treating it as the new normal is exactly the mistake a smoothed long-run assumption exists to avoid. Stress-test both directions in the planner.
FAQ
- What is the median home price in San Francisco right now?
- $2.05 million as of August 2026, per Redfin — up 25.2% year over year, though down 4.7% from the prior month. Price per square foot is up 19.6% year over year to $1,181.
- Why are San Francisco home prices rising so fast?
- Concentrated AI-sector wealth, not a broad demand wave. Active listings are down 41% year over year, so a relatively small pool of buyers is competing for a shrinking supply of homes on the market.
- Does Prop 13 actually cap my property tax growth?
- Yes. California assesses property tax based on purchase price, and state law caps annual increases in assessed value at 2% regardless of how much the market value rises. It is one of the more buyer-favorable property tax systems in the country for long-term owners.
- What is San Francisco's transfer tax?
- A city-specific tax layered on top of California's, tiered by sale price. On a home between $1M and $5M — where most San Francisco sales fall — the rate is 0.75%. It climbs to as much as 6% on sales of $25M or more.
- When does PMI drop off in San Francisco?
- The same rule applies everywhere: once your loan balance falls to 80% of the original purchase price. Rapid local appreciation does not accelerate this — the threshold is based on the original loan amount, not current market value.
- Is 20% down realistic on a $2M San Francisco home?
- A 20% down payment on the example home here is roughly $410,000 — a serious barrier even for high earners. Many San Francisco buyers put down less and carry PMI in exchange for keeping more cash liquid; whether that trade makes sense depends on your full financial picture, not a fixed rule.
Run your own San Francisco numbers
Change the price, down payment, income, and rate — and see the full 30-year picture, not just a monthly payment. Free, no account needed.
Start planning →Rate assumption: 6.65% (Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed, as of 2026-08-20). Median price: Redfin, San Francisco single-family home sales, August 2026.